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"Vietnam Real Estate - looking back 20 years":'s to spend

Post time: 12/10/2013

For serial line event " Vietnam Real Estate - looking back 20 years," before attempting to answer the question given from all the third South Real Estate Forum Dia ( DNRE ) desired analysis and to answer another question :

Why is cash flow so easily turn into real estate , even with high traffic levels caused the fever ?

Vietnam 's economy after reunification is only a very weak economy . Add to that the many disadvantages of objectivity to subjectivity should be after 15 years , Vietnam 's economy to overcome the difficulties accumulate and begin to prosper since entered a period of " reform " - abandon economic focus , starting the first step into the market economy .

The market economy has created economic performance and financial surplus amounts of people . There is need of financial stress in the population abundance , not in the state budget and people want to find a place to ensure the quality and safety of this financial . Address believe that most people in the period before the implicit transaction of land is gold . Besides , the tradition when his father left to save and leave the children out of gold can only land . In rural Vietnam , if people do not have money , there 's ( which is yellow here ) , then there is land inheritance to his children . In urban areas , land is not much that 's more than enough money , people and land to shopping (including in rural areas ) to savings and inheritance . Moreover, prior to 1990 , Vietnam currency devaluation suffered hyper and hyper inflation economy has forced people to move assets " intended " to gold and later housing . At that time , the land has always been measured by the " tree " , with " only " ... and this habit lasts until today .

The reason for the above is the first agent that financial flows very easily "auto " switch to land in 20 years . It was for this reason that after the freeze of financial flows 1994-1999 abundance estimates at least $ 6 billion into the stock does not move - a totally new investment channels for the Vietnamese in 2000 - but an again caused a media frenzy "explosion " of real estate from 2001 to 2002 . At the time in 2000 , Vietnamese people do not understand something , do not imagine the value of the stock market is also not difficult to understand . So requiring people trust securities investment profits instead of " save " gold or land is too difficult at the time of the early 2000s .

In the previous article , DNRE quoted : " During the period from 2000 to 2005, the market capitalization of Vietnam Securities only around 1 % of GDP " .

Thus, when the real estate market and the stock market in Vietnam are the bleak state outflow go?

The answer is not hard to look at the data on the currency of Vietnam 2000-2006 . During these years , only 2000 and 2001 , with export promotion policies , Dong ( VND ) was beaten slide sharply against the dollar , respectively, 3.46 % and 3.9 % . However, since the end of 2005 , the annual level of inflation was decreasing . As at the time of September 30, 2006 , a dollar exchanged at 16051 , up 137 points, or 0.86 % YTD ( 15 914 ) . The previous year , the rate of devaluation of the dong against the dollar as follows : 2005 : 0.86 % 2004 : 0.84 % 2003 : 1.56 % and 2002 : 1.98 % . These data suggest that people 's confidence in the dong has definitely increased , inversely proportional to the devaluation of the currency and thereby , financial flows have been transferred into the banking system and thus rotation transferred to the manufacturing sector , other business . Thus, in 2002 and 2006 , but Stock Markets are not promoting effects as a source of capital for the economy , but financial flow through the banking system , the economy moved to make the economy Vietnam's economy achieved steady progress as described in the third article of this Symposium .

The next evolution of the real estate and securities has been described and analyzed in the previous post . In this article , DNRE Forum will try to find out why the opposite progression of Real Estate Market Vietnam in both South and North after 2008 . Again , the DNRE Forum refers to financial flows as an agent of all phenomena inherent in the economy of Vietnam. Of course , this conclusion is somewhat superficial . Speaking symbolically and objectively , if for the economy as a living organism , the financial flows not unlike blood flow to the body and all phenomena , all disease through blood sugar should also complete economy dependent on financial flows for all economies , not only in Vietnam .

Thus, after the tightening of fiscal policy to fight inflation , create bubbles against the stock and real estate bubble , the real estate market has rapidly moved south to the depression of trade and prices . even , as the analysis of the second article in this Symposium : " First of all, many businesses and people hardly pay bank interest and the Review of the Association of Real Estate Business Dist . HCM if this situation goes on there will be at least 30 % of businesses go bankrupt , is in the city . HCM was 50 % of the real estate business in the area have closed, 30 % moderately active , only 20 % is going to continue business investment . " The reason is the Real Estate Market Southern relies heavily on bank loans to the cash flow business . This " blood " blocked , Real Estate Market South immediately and severely affected the decline in both prices and transactions are inevitable .

What about the real estate market north ? The basic difference is also the financial flows . It can be said of financial abundance in the North enough to market real estate only affected immediately , prices have declined by 10 % in 2008 and declined transactions as well . But 2009 Real Estate Market North has developed with the active back in the fourth quarter and into 2010 as well as transaction prices to continue to rise until the Decree 71/2010 of the Government and Circular 16 the construction of the birth , that the transaction had to slow down the project in accordance with the law. However, trading is not halted due to lack of finance that investment by funding regulations are very strict in Article 9 of Decree 71/2010 . So in essence , real estate market in both South and North are in a state of ( financial ) difference and that is the cause of the movement opposing the two regions after 2008 .

Ultimately the question is quite " sensitive " : " ... seems to " always go after the policy market " and a threat to Vietnam 's economy may be in any field when the line moved to the strong financial and when the State must always " intervene " to create a " stable " market ? " .

Forum answer only very general DNRE : For all areas and in all countries , the law "seems to always go after the real " as reality and constantly changing laws will need to be established place to serve and regulate . This is true in principle , but besides that , in many countries , policy researchers often " measure " before the progress and implementation of the " plan " and policies that serve to limit " run by actual , what is wrong fix it. " However, no discussion of the legal framework and Forum posts DNRE just hoped the legal standards and transparency in the market - just as the government criteria and the proposed building out .

And here , DNRE Forum that discussed the theme " Vietnam Real Estate - looking back 20 years," has achieved some results and provide some information to you readers . If anything, we can pose some very difficult questions to answer, such as :

1 . Does not repeat cycle : a freeze for the third time this term of 5 years and a true fever will come in 2012 ?

2 . And ... we will have the Land Law 2013 ( both formerly Law , 1993, 2003) and this law ( if any) , then what's new ?

Still can not accurately answer two difficult questions on here but DNRE Forum will discuss with you the second you read this question in the following article .

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