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"Quantitative real estate market": Adjust

Ngày đăng: 15/10/2013

Dia Nam Real Estate Forum ( DNRE ) will continue Symposium " Quantitative Real Estate Market " in articles about future judgment Vietnam real estate ( with its focus on markets in Hanoi ) . Of course this is a very difficult job and will probably cause dissent with many of the Readers Forum .

However, through what we consider both the thematic " Vietnam's Real Estate - looking back 20 years," and " Quantitative real estate market ," then we will not get too large and the call packages in two questions :

The national real estate market will follow the direction " adjustment " of the city property . HCMC or vice versa , Hanoi will continue to lead the market continues to evolve , pulling in all the other areas ?

Which scenario is the most appropriate direction for the future development of the real estate market in Vietnam.

We start from the first question by considering the changes of city real estate market . HCM from 2008 to present. This review may be briefly stated in very clear some of the MOC Deputy Nguyen Tran Nam from 2008 :

" The real estate market today (ie in 2008 - note DNRE ) is not" quiet " , as can not be called " freeze " that it is returned to the right orbit , the right to truth values .

Real estate prices are currently down properly with the operating of the Government , not to an unreasonable high prices .

And with the news that the real estate investor 's losses are unfounded , untrue . They can reduce interest but remain very attractive . " .

With this judgment , we can understand that the City property market . HCM has been adjusted from 2008 to date for real estate prices in the city . HCM more " realistic " is represented by the managing declared supporters . The latest information about City real estate market . HCM show that the adjustment process of the City property market . HCM continues though can cause significant changes ( to the extent of disturbance ) for the real estate business and finance businesses in the city . HCM . These changes can even affect the financial markets in particular and the economy in general , but it is inevitable ( and necessary ) to not occur " bubble " in the U.S. real estate as States or other countries .

According to the experience of many investors , real estate business in Vietnam , Hanoi real estate market is generally slow movements City Market . HCM approximately 2 to 3 years and as such , tend to " adjust " to the Hanoi real estate market is entirely possible , especially if that trend with the direction of the Government of market makers . Also , we can see the real estate market in the city . HCM cooled and adjusted during the last 3 years ( and continues ) to make the City . HCM achieve significant benefits in economic development . The benefits include:

Bringing back the value of real estate prices " more realistic " and close with the ability to purchase / lease of more markets , thereby facilitating development goals in general population and economic development in particular.

The discount houses , land will create more favorable conditions for compensation , site clearance in planning and urban development for the city . HCM because of the high price is the biggest obstacle for the rehabilitation and upgrading of urban areas .

The decrease in housing prices is also a prerequisite for attracting investment policy and the development of production and business in the city because housing prices , high land is a serious obstacle to any business that is not only in starting a business but also in the entire business process .

And finally, and reduce the risk of bubble activity and avoid speculative real estate when the market grows too hot .

The main benefit here is that policy makers are interested and want to work towards. That is the cause of the introduction of Decree 71/2010 and Circular 16 of the Ministry of Construction to gradually cool the property market and reduce risk for mobilizing investment in the real estate field . Of course , only one or a circular decree can not solve all complex problems , it is also what DNRE Forum mentioned in the article " Vietnam real estate market - look back 20 years past " : Getting circuits property.

Next, to obtain a preliminary assessment of the ability to adjust the Hanoi real estate market in the direction of avoiding the overheating situation , to avoid the risk of bubbles and avoid speculative real estate trends , and we list some distinguishing between Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City:

The amount invested in property to Ho Chi Minh City is largely bank loans while in Hanoi is the capital raised from the purchase . Imbalance of this capital has been described as a rule ( Pareto ) in an article by DNRE Forum on Real Estate Market South and North.
The process of implementation of real estate projects in the Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi are very different , even opposite in many stages and that causes a difference in the provision of two major cities . Specifically, the supply of the Ho Chi Minh City usually more plentiful and cost of the project in Hanoi usually much lower in the Ho Chi Minh City.
Trend immigrants from other provinces in the two major cities but there is not much difference , but investors tend to own houses in the two cities have many differences . Specifically, demand is still very high in Hanoi ( though prices are higher than in the city . Much HCM ) because many people in the province are still bought and own desire ( not just a house ) house in Hanoi as a natural direction " fashionable " to have money .
The increase in real estate prices quickly ( to the non-market ) is usually caused by speculation , with the help of the broker system ( blowing price ) and the amount of speculative money usually only enough for one in the whole region water . Specifically, if the cumulative cash flow in 2007 to create a vibrant ( that fit ) at City real estate market . City and some surrounding areas ( whilst pretty quiet Hanoi ) , the incremental cash flow is just enough to make the real estate market in Hanoi " local fever " from late 2009 to present (also City . HCM are downs settle and adjust ) .

Speaking in a general way , but the " blowing prices " can generate excitement for the real estate market and create " business opportunity " for some obscure not blink but the overall opportunity to create bubbles property - a threat to the nation's financial system . Understanding this situation deeply , market makers only a single choice : to cool the property market but to choose the route or the most reasonable scenario . And here is the second question of this article .

The script should select the Hanoi market is adjusted to create a roadmap to reduce the pressure of the bubble and caused the market turmoil . However , stems from the distinctive characteristics mentioned above between the two city markets . Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi , the financial squeeze for Hanoi market will not necessarily create effective immediately that certain lag . Meanwhile , Dist . HCM is gradually going to be equilibrium supply and demand of real ( not for speculation ) and start creating effects for economic development theoquy law , the market seems to comment on the delay in Hanoi over the Ho Chi Minh City in economic development seems clearer and without a specific plan , affordable next 3 years of market Hanoi City will be 3 years . HCM has experienced ?

If the above statement is correct, then the promotion of rapid adjustment to market requirements Hanoi is quite important and urgent . The world price to pay for the real estate bubble is an example still topical financial crisis comes from the real estate crisis in the United States past the DNRE Forum mentioned in previous article . Besides , the delay ( though to cool slowly ) is a major disadvantage in terms of time for attracting investment and urban development for the capital, Hanoi .

So policy makers have two options :

By financial instruments ( tighten credit policy today ) and the administration ( such as legal regulations in Decree 71/2010 and Circular 16 ) to "force " Hanoi real estate market is cooling down .
By financial instruments ( real estate tax policy ) and to administrative measures ( creating corridor for the provision of real estate) to increase supply to cool down the real estate property quickly and avoid time-consuming Hanoi adjusted as during the last 3 years in the city . HCM .

Analyze and evaluate the pros and cons for each of the above two options , together we will make the following written trongbai Symposium " Quantitative real estate market."

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