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"Quantitative real estate market": KEY

Ngày đăng: 15/10/2013

This article will continue Monday Symposium " Quantitative real estate market " of the South Real Estate Forum Dia ( DNRE ) with some analysis and evaluation of the pros and cons to both choices made truocda article :

By financial instruments ( credit tightening policy as now ) and administration ( such as legal regulations in Decree 71/2010 and Circular 16 ) to "force " Hanoi real estate market is cooling down.

By financial instruments ( real estate tax policy ) and to administrative measures ( creating corridor for the provision of real estate) to increase supply to cool down the real estate property quickly and avoid time-consuming Hanoi adjusted as during the last 3 years in Ho Chi Minh City .

As we all know , at the present time ( April 2011 ) , the first measures undertaken by the State for more than six months and the results hardly noticed if not reverse , RE Ha Cabinet continues to raise prices locally, even beyond the annual rule . So why ?

In the previous article , DNRE Forum has listed several distinct characteristic of the real estate market in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City from other areas , in which the difference is set up top :

" The amount of capital invested in real estate in Ho Chi Minh City is largely bank loans while in Hanoi is the capital raised from the purchase. Imbalance of this capital has been described as a rule ( Pareto ) trongmot article DNRE Forum on Real Estate Market South and the North ".

Thus, administrative measures ( regulations in Decree 71/2010 and Circular 16 ) has a direct impact on the ability to raise capital from investors in Hanoi and the theory is not impact on the market , although there may be delays - according to some experts .

Economy in general ( and the identification of particular market ) is an extremely complex subject with many parameters influence the market and impact each other . That is why the market assessment errors are encountered and / or very large errors . The first difference between the real estate market in Hanoi and HCM show that the above administrative measures by tightening the ability to raise capital will make the supply of Hanoi real estate decreased by investors hard able to raise capital to create products ( or product creation but limited sales capabilities provided by law ) .

Next second difference is that previous posts have stated :

" The implementation of real estate projects in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi are very different , even opposite in many stages and that causes a difference in the provision of two major cities . Specifically, the supply of Ho Chi Minh City usually more plentiful and cost of the project in Hanoi usually much lower than in Ho Chi Minh City . "

Thus, if no policy changes, the supply in Ho Chi Minh City continues abundant in Hanoi and continued tight. Panorama Vietnam real estate market will be difficult to change in the near future and the " cool " or " adjusted " Hanoi real estate market can be difficult even with the delay occurred as the opinion of a number of experts , even as supply decreases, prices have increased as a crucial principle of the market .

Hanoi real estate market reflects the " lack of supply " through the phenomenon of investors ( or speculators ? ) Hunted or trapped recent land rush to suburban agricultural land without consideration of the ability to convert or future transactions . This situation reminds us recall Vietnam Stock Market incredibly exciting with "truth " would have said just buy a dress for the P / E has risen to the level of absurdity.

Currently, many experts have commented on the current situation by investing mostly in Hanoi but reckless , considering the current supply-demand relationship and found that this is not entirely unjustified . As the government tightened foreign exchange management and investment gold , the two channels can be regarded as provisional only blocked or leaking underground operations . Vietnam Stock Market , then the stage is not clear on channel direction and is not attractive investment , the general principle , only channel for real estate investment . However, the management policy which specifically Decree 71 and Circular 16 was made a part of supply reduction , and old sources (already purchased and resold many times ) is not attractive anymore because prices was too high , that not only is there a real need that can not afford even the speculators have also found it difficult to profit when buyers later resold . And water resources ( financial ) being blocked on all sides will leak into these " canals " stranded investment or agricultural land as described above . Here we use the word " canal " as a play on words because it can not be considered as " channel " mainstream real estate investment .

Next, we can not forget to mention the impact of tightening credit to " bridge " . It is true that credit crunch also made to reduce the impact , but through the study of the Vietnam Report , we found a couple of leads to paradox tightening real estate loans no ( or very little ) influence demand . Specifically, by groups who have high loan demand is likely to be low, so the lending installment loans to buy houses ( which was not very common ) would not necessarily because of tightening credit policies which reduced much . That's not to mention the problems high interest rates (currently over 20 % / year ) was also a barrier to buying real estate lending needs no development in Vietnam without having to tighten policy for loans . In short , credit tightening (particularly real estate development and general manufacturing ) in Vietnam is not ( or very little ) to make the reduction but also create more reduced . This is a quite different laws of Vietnam's financial markets than many other financial market in the world .

Policy tightening real estate credit in 2008 has changed the real estate market is completely characterized by the Ho Chi Minh City 's capital markets are bank loans . Both the investor and the investment will be used to fund loans were tightened , the sudden decrease immediately and lead to serenity in the market when supply can not be reduced just because the investor has long -term plans . The " foreclosure capital " only make them fall into a difficult situation , do not know how to manage the output is dwindling bank debt and then become a threat not only to Ho Chi Minh City real estate businesses but also for the financial system , the bank balance risk real estate loans become NPLs .

The real estate credit tightening policy in 2011 is generally in curbing inflation, stabilizing macro economy but entirely possible role as an impact Monday ( dual impact , after impact in 2008 above ) in order to make the businesses in Ho Chi Minh real estate Market increasingly more difficult. While in Hanoi , as DNRE analyzed above, the impact can cause quite the opposite effect than HCMC .

At this point , we can understand part of the reason the two moved backward largest real estate market in the country in the last three years and also can temporarily conclude that if the State does not have the changes policies ( both administrative and financial ), the Hanoi real estate market will not be reduced by adjusting the temperature and positive as analyzed in the previous article of this Symposium.

So the market will change , what if the State will adopt measures Monday : using financial instruments ( real estate tax policy ) and to administrative measures ( creating corridor for the provision of real estate) to increase provide real estate market ? Of course , we will see big changes on the market . The increase in supply could slowly impact the market rules " balance supply and demand - " financial flow will slowly move into the property and the balance of supply and demand - will be reached after a certain time . However, this is not the policy of the State or not, we must consider the content of the Government's Resolution 11 on the implementation and speed reduction ratio loans non-manufacturing sector compared with 2010 , especially the field of real estate , securities ... that is specific to 30/6/2011 , the share of loans to non-manufacturing sector compared to total loans up to 22 % and up to 31/12/2011 , the maximum proportion of 16%. Forum DNRE you want to read your own judgment to answer this question .

From the above consideration particular , we see only the remaining measures (to be conducted applicable ) property tax policy - can create a powerful impact to the real estate market . However, this is a new measure that requires time to implement the pilot , adjust and apply . The impact of this measure will be a separate study that intends DNRE forum to exchange with you readers in the series of the next Session .

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