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"Quantitative real estate market": The numbers

Post time: 14/10/2013

After you read this review with you the real estate market in the past 20 years, Vietnam Real Estate Forum Dia ( DNRE ) to step to the next Session : " Quantitative real estate market " from the other perspective DNRE other experts as well as references to other studies .

First Forum DNRE You want to come and you read a study and said that economic experts have made the market a few years ago . It is the study of Dr. Nguyen Tan yellow journal Economic Development in November 2008 . The study has been created over 2 years ago , but remains the reference value to this day , especially in the current period - March 2011 - The government recently issued Resolution 11/NQ-CP the tightening of credit stating that the object of real estate and securities .

Here is the content of the study : " One of the problems that affect the most significant and important to the economy and the continuous impact in a number of other professions in society , which features recent opinion special attention is both sensitive market : the land ( real estate) and securities . Within the scope of this article , the author uses descriptive statistical methods and quantitative analysis to understand the underlying causes the phenomenon of the bubble in the real estate market in the city over time . Minh - as well as the needs of the people of this particular type of goods [ 1 ] has been satisfied how it compares with the ability to accumulate their own to be able to get a house in the city 's most populous nation "

1 . Real demand for housing

Real estate bubble phenomenon in recent times mainly due to the investment intermediary , collecting , self- inflated value of this market ... make up an unusually fast [ 2 ] . The most obvious expression of this activity is the real estate business have flocked to bank loans to purchase lots of land, the project houses , apartments , ... for the purpose of speculation to collect excess profits from the difference between the interest rate banks compared with rapid growth of real estate on the open market [ 3 ] . Therefore, since banks tightened credit to invest in Stock Market ( 01/ 2007 ) and the type of real estate investment ( 6/2008 ) [ 4 ] , or by mortgage loans real estate , the market plummeted almost no brakes - just over seven months ( from early 2008 to 07 / 2008) was reduced by about 50 % [ 5 ] .

Besides , who really needs to buy a home in the next continued to market , only to observe , languishing balance with very modest income his capital . Accumulate their ability to meet the real needs of this increasingly becomes impossible , because real estate values are constantly rising . These continuous waves of inflation appear [ 6 ] , directly increase the cost of daily life ( in general ) - in the growth of per capita income levels are much lower than the number costs related to economic , social ...

Through the basic problems mentioned above, we can visualize the real estate market is a totally unhealthy ( within City ) in the past as well as present [ 7 ] . Real estate price increases down , largely due to the impact , the dominant intermediate investors , create virtual gap between market prices than the real value , the real estate fair . From that creates differentiation invisible in society - between a wealthy people , with a lot of real estate speculators to trade , collect excess profits exponentially , and one side are those who do the demand for housing , despite trying for many years to accumulate with their meager income , but their dream retreat is always longer in the front and is also not stop ! Data analysis showed that following real needs of this target group .

Migrants : HCMC receives annually about 200 thousand immigrants ( according to survey data of Ho Chi Minh City CA ) - is the wave of labor from some neighboring provinces flock to the city after the Decree ddinh 108/2005/ND-CP of the Government on the registration - household management , has opened a number of more liberal rules for the flow of immigrants to the big cities .

Officials and employees : In addition, according to preliminary statistics , [ 8 ] the country has more than 1.4 million workers , public and private organizations and almost 800 thousand workers are working in industrial parks , export processing zones , now Ho Chi Minh City area ... in which more than 700,000 people and people in need of housing is 68.6 % ( 480 200 people ) .

People with low incomes : In addition, according to statistics from the Department of Natural Resources and Environment , the current HCM housing needs for approximately 25,000 low-income households - while , since 2003 to present only the decisions are 2,700 households ( 11 % ) through various forms of distributed , asynchronous implementation is not , take the time ... besides that , within two years, with 467 projects being implemented [ 9 ] - the additional 64,200 households will be eligible for release . Therefore accommodation for low -income people in HCMC is even more pressing than the supply capacity of the project to less than 40,000 units. If fully implemented the compensation plan , the release of this project is also still missing to 24,200 units.

From there , if the housing area per capita is 15m2/dau people [ 10 ] , the immediate needs of the people ( of those mentioned above ) are :

- Migrants : 200,000 to approximately 3,000,000 m2

- Officials and employees : approximately 480 200 people to 7.203 million m2 .

- People with low income : approximately 1,600,000 m2 46,500 units . ( Minimum area to build a house in the new planning area of 35 m2 / base - according to current standards of the Ministry of Construction ) .

General needs housing should be developed :

3,000,000 + 7,203,000 + 1,600,000 = 11,803,000 m2 [ 11 ]

2 . Status of current property prices

Glaciation from real estate this year has made the market price is down nearly 50 % compared to the same period last year [ 12 ] is a good sign for those who really need housing , and vice versa . for broker groups . real estate speculation . However, this item is currently not reduce the amplitude of its virtual price . According to real estate experts in the world, in an environment of economic and socio- political normal real estate prices increased on average 30 % / year is reasonable . Thus, if compared with the time in 10/2006 [ 13 , 14 ] , the current real estate prices remain generally 1.5 times higher than the end of 2006 ! [ 15 ] .

To be able to see the true value of the real estate market ( in general ) we will in turn analyze the basic elements of the cost - structure of this asset class in quantitative methods as follows : (Unit : million USD )

Thus the real value . reasonableness of fixed assets mentioned above is 422 + 670 = 1.1 billion VNĐ ( only 65 % compared to current market price ) - So . Although in recent years ( from late 2007 to present) is the real estate market prices are considered "frozen " and had a significant reduction ( 50 % ) , but the imaginary part of the number is still higher than the real one its 0.6 billion ( 1.7 to 1.1 or 65 % ) - through the calculation method with the above assumptions , the real estate prices will continue to fall can add 35 % more to be considered as reasonable return true and actual value of the capital asset's special !

3 . Actual income and adjusted earnings

Real income :

To be able to see the overall problem should be studied . as well as significant differences in income , we refer to the average wage ( public - private function ) [ 20 ] - to the income of self-employed sectors of society , we will assign in a range of other research ) - a number of countries in the region - has many economic similarities . culture . society ... with Vietnam in the table below :

According to the most recent statistics of Mr. David Peter Jensen , director of the project , the company Navigos current average income of employees in foreign companies than domestic firms ( general - public and private organizations ) - a difference of 35 % [ 21 ] . Also, in some senior management positions ( CEO ) this gap is now more than 200 % !

Adjustment of income :

Accordingly , in order to balance between a reasonable level of income in the water sector ( in general ) than foreign companies ( not to mention the other dominant factors : work environment . Promotion capabilities . the opportunity to learn ... ) as well as countries in the region ( according to the list above ) , the level of per capita income adjustment would be reasonable : 200 USD / month ( average income / month of 5 countries in the region there are many similarities in economic , cultural and social ... : Vietnam , Indonesia , Thailand , Malaysia , China ) . From the above calculation results . we can make two lists of the aggregate number of the most basic ( income & property value ) - have a direct impact on the cumulative time of people buying houses ( public, private functions ) as follows :

We found that the cumulative time purchase of objects of housing needs as follows :

For public officials :

With a per capita income of 3.6 million / month ( 200 USD ) by calculating the UN [ 25 ] combined with the method of compounding cumulative incremental / year ) [ 26 ] and the value real estate is adjusted for its value ( 1.1 billion ) - it took 27 years to accumulate new shopping can be a home ( land ) and the average value of the property if the current one , 7 billion , it may take up to 30 years !

Furthermore , if inflation as last time ( the CPI increased 27 % ) [ 27 ] , the cumulative time home buyers for this object must be extended to 29 years (for RE 1.1 billion ) and 32 years ( for 1.7 billion property value ) !

For , from the income of the average - current ( 3 million / month ) :

With an average income of 3.0 million dong / month , according to UN calculations , combined with compounding methods have cumulative incremental / year and the property is worth 1.1 billion (adjusted ) , the subjects took 28 years to purchase a house (on average ) and the value of this property is 1.7 billion ( current market price ) it may take up to 31 years !

On the other hand , the inflation situation as last time ( the CPI increased 27 % ) - the cumulative time home buyers for this object must be up to 30 years (for RE 1.1 billion ) and 33 years (for with RE 1.7 billion ) ! .

For low -income people :

Likewise . for low - income people with an average 1.0 million / month . according to UN calculations , combined with compounding methods have cumulative incremental / year and the value of the property ( houses and land ) of about 1.1 billion , it may take 36 years to purchase a house (medium ) and 1.7 billion real estate values , it may take up to 39 years !

Furthermore , with 27 % inflation situation as last time ( the CPI increased by 27 % ) , the cumulative time home buyers for this object is 38 years (real estate worth 1.1 billion ) and take up to 41 five great- chiu . accumulate can achieve their life dreams end ( RE 1.7 billion ) !

4 . Conclusion

In sum , calculated on the basis of accumulated time home buyers of the UN ( 25 % average income x 15 years x the bank rate ) - the number of years of work earned as savings from the VN with income levels currently around 3.0 million dong / month ( unadjusted ) , real estate values around 1.7 billion + 27 % CPI inflation ... twice as long ( 33 years ) and for earners low ( 1 million / month ) then this time nearly 3 times higher than the average of their way ( 41 years ) !

On the other hand , the situation of the input fuel ( petrol ) has skyrocketed in just a short time past ( 30 % - 21/ 07 /2008) forthcoming . of course the price - series output of other items that will increase the rate of inevitable and the real estate market is no exception to this rule is in the month - end . Accordingly , a fever Wednesday [ 28 ] on the real estate market is entirely possible . Cumulative time home buyers of all subjects will certainly continue to be widened while income levels have not been adjusted in time (or negligible). This makes the dream of owning a home become more difficult to implement than the cumulative capacity becoming their humble !

Therefore, to be able to partially stabilize the real estate market in the coming time and constantly improve people's lives in housing demand , the authorities must invest in research and policies related to property such as real estate market regulation in order to prevent speculation tax , a progressive tax on property of individuals and businesses by applying the law of property inheritance . In addition, the income of the salaried employee objects (public or private organizations) need time to adjust to motivate reasonable offer highest productivity of their labor . Property market development will contribute to bringing the overall growth and stability for Vietnam 's economy in the process of implementing the plan the next 5 year period from 2010 to 2015 .

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